UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
London, United Kingdom
19 Mar 2022
Lightweight
VS
81%
Pimblett
19%
Vargas
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:49
Paddy
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
23 – 4
5'10"73" reachOrthodox31 yrsPressure Fighter
CFR 69
KV
Kazula Vargas
12 – 5
Well-Rounded40 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'8"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pimblett

Pimblett is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 53 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pimblett has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Striking split: Vargas throws more volume but Pimblett connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Pimblett
Vargas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
71"
31+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pimblett
Vargas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.2
16.3
63.1
Performance Avg
25.0
47
Quality of Victory
25
85
Momentum Score
33
Pimblett
Vargas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.0
52%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
0
Body
2
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch2
1Ground3
Pimblett
Vargas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.1
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
4.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pimblett
Vargas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/17 fights
Pimblett
Vargas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
33
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R1
L · Dec · R3
Pimblett
Vargas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pimblett
Vargas
Striking4.6 / 0.5Volume4.0 / 8.5Grappling4.1 / 2.4Wrestling2.9 / 1.7Submission4.3 / 0.0Pressure7.6 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Pimblett
Strike Zones
Vargas
Pimblett
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY2LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Vargas
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY2LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pimblett targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Vargas absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Vargas targets the head (71% of attacks) — Pimblett absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pimblett
RND
Vargas
0/0R00/0

Pimblett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.0W5.0W6.7W4.9W5.0W5.7W6.0W7.1L2021-092022-072023-122025-042026-01
WinLossTrend

Vargas · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5L4.0L5.0W3.2L2019-082020-022021-042022-03
WinLossTrend

Pimblett · Last 5

Upcoming
Benoit Saint Denis
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 5.7
Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 5
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

Vargas · Last 4

L · Sub · R1
Paddy PimblettRating 3.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
RongzhuRating 5
Decision
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · R1
Brok WeaverRating 4
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Alex Da SilvaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08

News & Media

Paddy Pimblett · Kazula Vargas
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