Can you trust the confidence we give a pick?
When we say a fighter has, say, a 70% chance to win, that fighter should end up actually winning around 70% of the time — not 90%, not 50%. Each row below groups our picks by how confident we were, and shows what actually happened. The closer the two numbers, the more you can trust that confidence level.
We said 0-20%
12%actually won15%(13)Spot on
We said 20-40%
32%actually won44%(68)We underrated these
We said 40-60%
49%actually won52%(102)Spot on
We said 60-80%
68%actually won71%(52)Spot on
We said 80-100%
93%actually won70%(20)We overrated these
Purple bar = what we predicted · Solid bar = what actually happened · Number in brackets = how many fights that's based on
All Results
Confidence:
Showing 427 fights70% correct (298 of 427)