⚡ Model Intelligence

ML Prediction Results

Chronological backtest — trained on the oldest 80% of fights, tested on the remaining 20%

Last 7 days
70%31/44
Last 30 days
64%53/83
Overall (test set)
59%255 fights
59%
ELO baseline: 55%
Accuracy
0.642
Random = 0.500
AUC
255
of 1273 total
Test Fights
LR
Logistic
Model
Calibration — Predicted vs Actual Win Rate
0-20%
12%→15%(13)
20-40%
32%→44%(68)
40-60%
49%→52%(102)
60-80%
68%→71%(52)
80-100%
93%→70%(20)
Purple = predicted · Coloured bar = actual · Green = well-calibrated

Men's Divisions

Heavyweight
71%
15/21 correct
Light Heavyweight
43%
9/21 correct
Middleweight
67%
24/36 correct
Welterweight
68%
19/28 correct
Lightweight
54%
22/41 correct
Featherweight
52%
16/31 correct
Bantamweight
52%
12/23 correct
Flyweight
88%
14/16 correct

Women's Divisions

W. Bantamweight
82%
9/11 correct
W. Flyweight
22%
2/9 correct
W. Strawweight
50%
5/10 correct
Confidence:
Showing 255 fights59% accuracy (150 correct)
Date
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
ML Pick
Conf.
Result
2032-05
Julianna Peña
Amanda Nunes
Peña 50%
LOW
✓
2032-05
Colby Covington
Gilbert Burns
Covington 90%
HIGH
✓
2032-05
Kamaru Usman
Gilbert Burns
Usman 77%
HIGH
✗
2032-04
Kamaru Usman
Colby Covington
Covington 89%
HIGH
✓
2032-04
Leon Edwards
Gilbert Burns
Edwards 88%
HIGH
✓
2032-04
Leon Edwards
Colby Covington
Edwards 100%
HIGH
✗
2032-04
Leon Edwards
Kamaru Usman
Edwards 66%
MED
✓
2032-03
Aljamain Sterling
Sean O'Malley
O'Malley 100%
HIGH
✗
2032-03
Alexander Volkanovski
Ilia Topuria
Topuria 100%
HIGH
✓
2032-03
Max Holloway
Ilia Topuria
Holloway 55%
LOW
✗
2032-03
Max Holloway
Alexander Volkanovski
Holloway 66%
MED
✓
2032-02
Conor McGregor
Khabib Nurmagomedov
McGregor 97%
HIGH
✗
2032-02
Justin Gaethje
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov 87%
HIGH
✓
2032-02
Justin Gaethje
Conor McGregor
McGregor 79%
HIGH
✓
2032-02
Dustin Poirier
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Poirier 92%
HIGH
✗
2032-01
Dustin Poirier
Conor McGregor
Poirier 98%
HIGH
✓
2032-01
Dustin Poirier
Justin Gaethje
Poirier 99%
HIGH
✓
2032-01
Charles Oliveira
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Oliveira 57%
LOW
✗
2032-01
Charles Oliveira
Conor McGregor
Oliveira 54%
LOW
✓
2032-01
Charles Oliveira
Justin Gaethje
Oliveira 81%
HIGH
✓
1–20 of 255
Model: Logistic Regression (pure Python fallback) · Trained 2026-05-21 · 1018 training fights