UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
Las Vegas, USA
24 May 2014
Lightweight
VS
75%
Ferguson
25%
Kikuno
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:06
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ferguson
Ferguson is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ferguson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Ferguson throws more volume but Kikuno connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kikuno has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ferguson
Kikuno
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
76"+
Reach
66"
42+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Kikuno
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
15.2
54.2
Performance Avg
38.3
49
Quality of Victory
37
52
Momentum Score
63
Ferguson
Kikuno
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
35
Head
17
1
Body
4
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
37Distance22
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Ferguson
Kikuno
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Kikuno
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
34
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
5/32 fights
Ferguson
Kikuno
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
63
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Ferguson
Kikuno
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Kikuno
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
FergusonKikuno
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedKikuno
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (92% of attacks) — Kikuno absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Kikuno targets the head (77% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Kikuno
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Kikuno · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2Decision
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L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Kikuno · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Diego BrandaoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · KO · R1
Edimilson SouzaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03
W · Sub · R2
Sam SiciliaRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · 2014-09
L · KO · R1
Tony FergusonRating 2KO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Quinn MulhernRating 4.5Decision
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