UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
Vancouver, Canada
12 Jun 2010
Welterweight
VS
55%
Condit
45%
MacDonald
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:53
CC
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
32 – 14
6'2"75" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 22
RM
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
19 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'0"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Condit

This is a genuine toss-up — Condit at 55% vs MacDonald at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Condit throws more volume but MacDonald connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Condit's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

MacDonald has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Condit
MacDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
75"
Reach
+76"
42
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Condit
MacDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.3
18.1
47.8
Performance Avg
51.3
48
Quality of Victory
39
20
Momentum Score
61
Condit
MacDonald
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.1
40%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
29
Head
5
3
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance5
4Clinch0
28Ground0
Condit
MacDonald
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Condit
MacDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/46 fights
Chin rating based on
13/23 fights
Condit
MacDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
61
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Condit
MacDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
44%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Condit
MacDonald
Striking5.4 / 4.7Volume4.5 / 5.8Grappling1.1 / 2.2Wrestling0.8 / 1.6Submission0.0 / 1.1Pressure4.5 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Condit
Strike Zones
MacDonald
Condit
Attacking
29HEAD3BODY3LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
MacDonald
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD3BODY3LEGS35 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Condit targets the head (83% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯MacDonald targets the head (100% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Condit
RND
MacDonald
0/0R00/0

Condit · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W5.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.4W2.8L4.1W5.8L1.5L6.1L2.8L3.5L4.7W4.9W6.1L2009-042012-022015-052018-122021-07
WinLossTrend

MacDonald · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W4.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.8L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.3L6.1L2010-012012-042014-022016-06
WinLossTrend

Condit · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Matt BrownRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Sub · R2
Alex OliveiraRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04

MacDonald · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
Robbie LawlerRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02

News & Media

Carlos Condit · Rory MacDonald
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