UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz
Manchester, United Kingdom
26 Oct 2013
Featherweight
VS
33%
Ogle
67%
Miller
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Miller
Miller holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Ogle has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Miller has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Ogle has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ogle's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Miller has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ogle
Miller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'1"
69"
Reach
+73"
37+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ogle
Miller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.8
17.6
21.7
Performance Avg
49.0
25
Quality of Victory
47
30
Momentum Score
49
Ogle
Miller
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
31%
0.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
5
6
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance6
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Ogle
Miller
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.1
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ogle
Miller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
42
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/15 fights
Chin rating based on
20/32 fights
Ogle
Miller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
49
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Ogle
Miller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
7
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ogle
Miller
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.0
0.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
8.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.6
OgleMiller
Strike Zones
Ogle
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedMiller
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ogle targets the head (57% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Miller targets the head (83% of attacks) — Ogle absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ogle
RND
Miller
0/0R00/0
Ogle · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Miller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Ogle · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Makwan AmirkhaniRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Maximo BlancoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Cole MillerRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · Dec · R3
Josh GrispiRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
Miller · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mizuto HirotaRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
Upcoming
Jim AlersUFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
W · Sub · R2
Sam SiciliaRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01