UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
Atlantic City, USA
22 Jun 2012
Lightweight
VS
89%
Nijem
11%
Keith
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:29
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nijem
Nijem is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nijem has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.
Striking split: Nijem throws more volume but Keith connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nijem's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Keith has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nijem
Keith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"
Reach
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nijem
Keith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.8
1.8
43.4
Performance Avg
0.0
39
Quality of Victory
0
51
Momentum Score
0
Nijem
Keith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.5
42%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch2
3Ground1
Nijem
Keith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nijem
Keith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/15 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Nijem
Keith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Nijem
Keith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nijem
Keith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
NijemKeith
Strike Zones
Nijem
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedKeith
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nijem targets the head (100% of attacks) — Keith absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Keith targets the head (60% of attacks) — Nijem absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nijem
RND
Keith
0/0R00/0
Nijem · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Keith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.1WinLossTrend
Nijem · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Andrew HolbrookRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Justin EdwardsRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01
L · Sub · R1
James VickRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
Keith · Last 2
L · Sub · R2
Francisco TrinaldoRating 2.8Submission
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping · 2013-01
L · KO · R1
Ramsey NijemRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06