UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne
Berlin, Germany
20 Jun 2015
Welterweight
VS
86%
Sobotta
14%
Kennedy
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:57
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sobotta
Sobotta is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sobotta has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Striking split: Kennedy throws more volume but Sobotta connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Sobotta's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sobotta
Kennedy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
39+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Sobotta
Kennedy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.1
2.4
39.8
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
50
Momentum Score
0
Sobotta
Kennedy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.0
39%
Strike Accuracy
37%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
2
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Sobotta
Kennedy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sobotta
Kennedy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/24 fights
Chin rating based on
2/32 fights
Sobotta
Kennedy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Sobotta
Kennedy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sobotta
Kennedy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SobottaKennedy
Strike Zones
Sobotta
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedKennedy
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sobotta targets the head (33% of attacks) — Kennedy absorbs 33% of strikes there
🎯Kennedy targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Sobotta absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sobotta
RND
Kennedy
0/0R00/0
Sobotta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Kennedy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Sobotta · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
W · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Kyle NokeRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11
Kennedy · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Richard WalshRating 5.5Decision
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11
L · Sub · R1
Peter SobottaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06