UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Denver, USA
28 Jan 2017
Flyweight
VS
83%
Pantoja
17%
Shelton
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Alexandre
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
30 – 6
5'5"67" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 61
ES
Eric Shelton
"Showtime"
12 – 6
Well-Rounded35 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'6"
CFR 12

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pantoja

Pantoja is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pantoja has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.

Pantoja has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Pantoja
Shelton
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'6"
67"
Reach
+68"
36
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pantoja
Shelton
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.7
12.1
60.2
Performance Avg
28.3
49
Quality of Victory
25
65
Momentum Score
45
Pantoja
Shelton
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
40%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
15
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance15
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Pantoja
Shelton
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pantoja
Shelton
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
92
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/36 fights
Chin rating based on
6/18 fights
Pantoja
Shelton
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
45
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Pantoja
Shelton
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pantoja
Shelton
Striking3.0 / 0.7Volume5.0 / 8.7Grappling4.5 / 2.4Wrestling3.1 / 1.7Submission4.3 / 0.0Pressure6.3 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Pantoja
Strike Zones
Shelton
Pantoja
Attacking
16HEAD1BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD0BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Shelton
Attacking
15HEAD0BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD1BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pantoja targets the head (94% of attacks) — Shelton absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Shelton targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pantoja absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pantoja
RND
Shelton
0/0R00/0

Pantoja · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.5W5.5L5.4W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.2W5.5L6.2W6.0W6.3W5.4W5.3W5.1W5.1W6.1W3.1L2017-012019-042021-082024-122025-12
WinLossTrend

Shelton · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0106.8L5.5L4.5W6.8L6.5W5.5L2017-012017-072017-112018-022018-112019-03
WinLossTrend

Pantoja · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Joshua VanRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R3
Kai Kara-FranceRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraRating 5.1
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

Shelton · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jordan EspinosaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Joseph MoralesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Alex PerezRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
W · Dec · R3
Jenel LausaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Jarred BrooksRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07

News & Media

Alexandre Pantoja · Eric Shelton
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