Kai Asakura vs Cameron Smotherman — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

Macau, China

30 May 2026

Bantamweight

67%

Asakura

33%

Smotherman

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 1:50

Kai Asakura

21 – 6

5'8"69" reachOrthodox32 yrs2-fight win streakKnockout Artist

CFR 59

Cameron Smotherman

"The Baby-Faced Killa"

12 – 6

Well-Rounded3-fight slide28 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'9"

CFR 29

★ Official Result

Kai AsakurawinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:50

def. Cameron Smotherman · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Asakura

Cameron Smotherman by second-round TKO — his volume, chin, and physicality overw…

→

Actual result

Asakura wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

Former RIZIN star Kai Asakura moves up to bantamweight seeking his first UFC win — the model gives him just 15% to find it.

Kai Asakura's UFC career has been a cautionary tale about the gap between Japanese MMA stardom and octagon reality. The former RIZIN bantamweight champion arrived with highlight-reel knockouts and enormous hype, only to lose back-to-back fights by submission — first to Alexandre Pantoja for the flyweight title, then to Tim Elliott in a result that genuinely shocked the MMA world. Now Asakura (21-…

Asakura intel

Asakura (21-6) is moving up from flyweight to bantamweight after two consecutive submission losses. The former RIZIN champion's striking pedigree is undeniable, but his UFC composite of 6.1 reflects a fighter who hasn't yet found his feet in the octagon.

Smotherman intel

Smotherman (12-6) brings heavy hands and an elite chin (96 durability). His UFC debut was scrapped when he fainted at UFC 324 weigh-ins, but he returns fully rested with a volume output (8.67) that could overwhelm Asakura's rhythm.

Key angles

Asakura's bantamweight move after going winless at flyweight in the UFC

The model's 15% rating reflects data scarcity rather than pure talent assessment

Smotherman's 96 chin rating making him extremely difficult to finish on the feet

Asakura's back-to-back submission losses exposing ground-game vulnerabilities

Whether Asakura's RIZIN striking translates when he's not cutting to 125

Risk flags

The model has almost no UFC data on Asakura at bantamweight — this is a high-uncertainty fight where the algorithm's confidence is artificially inflated

Smotherman's weigh-in collapse at UFC 324 raises conditioning questions

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

AsakuraSmotherman

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Asakura

Smotherman

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'8"

Height

+5'9"

69"

Reach

69"

Age

+28

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Asakura

Smotherman

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

58.9

28.8

54.5

Performance Avg

25.0

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Asakura

Smotherman

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

10.0

/ 10

0.5

/ 10

8.5

Style: Pressure

0.8

1.0

Style: Volume

8.5

2 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

8Distance3

0Clinch0

1Ground0

Asakura

Smotherman

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.0

/ 10

2.4

/ 10

0.0

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.7

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Asakura

Smotherman

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

4/27 fights

Chin rating based on

4/18 fights

Asakura

Smotherman

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

W · KO · R2

W · KO · R1

L · Sub · R2

Last 5

L · KO · R1

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

Asakura

Smotherman

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

100%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Asakura

Smotherman

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

10.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

0.5

0.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.4

0.0

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.7

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

8.5

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

0.8

1.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

8.5

Asakura

Strike Zones

Smotherman

Asakura

Attacking

9 landed

Absorbing

3 absorbed

Smotherman

Attacking

3 landed

Absorbing

9 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Asakura targets the head (67% of attacks) — Smotherman absorbs 67% of strikes there

🎯Smotherman targets the head (100% of attacks) — Asakura absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Asakura

RND

Smotherman

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Asakura · Last 4

W · KO · R2

Aoriqileng

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08

W · KO · R1

Cameron Smotherman

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05

L · Sub · R2

Tim Elliott

Submission

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08

L · Sub · R2

Alexandre Pantoja

Submission

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12

Smotherman · Last 4

L · KO · R1

Kai Asakura

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05

L · Dec · R3

Ricky Simon

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06

L · Dec · R3

Serhiy Sidey

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05

W · Dec · R3

Jake Hadley

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10

News & Media

Kai Asakura · Cameron Smotherman

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