UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Jacksonville, USA
24 Apr 2021
Light Heavyweight
VS
47%
Smith
53%
Crute
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Crute
This is a genuine toss-up — Smith at 47% vs Crute at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Crute throws more volume but Smith connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Smith's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Crute has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Smith
Crute
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
76"+
Reach
74"
37
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Crute
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
66.0
50.7
Performance Avg
56.7
50
Quality of Victory
55
100
Momentum Score
91
Smith
Crute
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
7
4
Body
2
2
Leg
9
RangeRange
26Distance17
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Smith
Crute
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smith
Crute
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/60 fights
Chin rating based on
12/18 fights
Smith
Crute
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
91
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Smith
Crute
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
77%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Crute
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.8
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.2
SmithCrute
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedCrute
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (77% of attacks) — Crute absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Crute targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Crute
0/0R00/0
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Crute · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
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W · Sub · R1
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Crute · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Ivan ErslanRating 5Submission
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W · Sub · R1
Marcin PrachnioRating 5.4Submission
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