UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Perth, Australia
2 May 2026
Bantamweight
VS
57%
Thicknesse
43%
Morales
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Colby
Colby Thicknesse
"Slickness"
9 – 1
5'7"69" reachOrthodox26 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 45
VM
Vince Morales
"Vandetta"
16 – 11
Well-Rounded6-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Thicknesse

This is a genuine toss-up — Thicknesse at 57% vs Morales at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Morales has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Morales has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Thicknesse
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
+70"
26+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thicknesse
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.3
34.6
41.7
Performance Avg
32.0
25
Quality of Victory
37
60
Momentum Score
30
Thicknesse
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.6
34%
Strike Accuracy
38%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
19
4
Body
5
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance22
2Clinch2
0Ground1
Thicknesse
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thicknesse
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/10 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Thicknesse
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
30
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Thicknesse
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thicknesse
Morales
Striking1.3 / 3.8Volume9.3 / 5.8Grappling2.4 / 1.6Wrestling1.7 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.0 / 3.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
9.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Thicknesse
Strike Zones
Morales
Thicknesse
Attacking
5HEAD4BODY4LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD5BODY1LEGS25 absorbed
Morales
Attacking
19HEAD5BODY1LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD4BODY4LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thicknesse targets the head (38% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (76% of attacks) — Thicknesse absorbs 76% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thicknesse
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0

Thicknesse · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0106.8L4.5W4.5W2025-022025-092026-05
WinLossTrend

Morales · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0106.8L5.6W5.5L3.2L4.5W5.0W6.0L5.5L6.2L7.4L7.1L6.0L2018-112020-052022-052025-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Thicknesse · Last 3

W · Dec · R3
Vince MoralesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Josias MusasaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandre TopuriaRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02

Morales · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Colby ThicknesseRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Raul Rosas Jr.Rating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Elijah SmithRating 7.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Taylor LapilusRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11

News & Media

Colby Thicknesse · Vince Morales
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