METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Perth, Australia
2 May 2026
Bantamweight
VS
57%
Thicknesse
43%
Morales
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Colby ThicknessewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Vince Morales · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Thicknesse
→
Actual result
Thicknesse wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Thicknesse at 57% vs Morales at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Morales has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Risk flags
Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ThicknesseMorales
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Thicknesse
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
+70"
27+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thicknesse
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.3
34.6
41.7
Performance Avg
32.0
25
Quality of Victory
37
60
Momentum Score
30
Thicknesse
Morales
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
2.0
Style: Pressure
3.1
9.3
Style: Volume
5.8
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
19
4
Body
5
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance22
2Clinch2
0Ground1
Thicknesse
Morales
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Thicknesse
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/10 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Thicknesse
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
30
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Thicknesse
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Thicknesse
Morales
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
9.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
ThicknesseMorales
Strike Zones
Thicknesse
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedMorales
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Thicknesse targets the head (38% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (76% of attacks) — Thicknesse absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Thicknesse
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
Thicknesse · Last 3
W · Dec · R3
Vince MoralesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Josias MusasaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandre TopuriaDecision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
Morales · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Colby ThicknesseDecision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Raul Rosas Jr.Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
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Taylor LapilusDecision
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Miles JohnsDecision
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