UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Tampa, USA
14 Dec 2024
Welterweight
VS
51%
Covington
49%
Buckley
Win Probability
Colby
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
17 – 5
5'11"72" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Joaquin
Joaquin Buckley
"New Mansa"
21 – 8
Striker2-fight slide32 yrsSouthpaw76" reach5'10"
CFR 58

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Covington

This is a genuine toss-up — Covington at 51% vs Buckley at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Buckley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Covington's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Buckley has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Covington
Buckley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
+76"
38
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Covington
Buckley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.2
58.0
53.2
Performance Avg
50.6
42
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
100
Covington
Buckley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.6
38%
Strike Accuracy
41%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
21
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance21
0Clinch1
2Ground2
Covington
Buckley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Covington
Buckley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
28
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/22 fights
Chin rating based on
17/29 fights
Covington
Buckley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Covington
Buckley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
55%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
2
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Covington
Buckley
Striking3.9 / 6.8Volume6.1 / 3.5Grappling2.7 / 0.7Wrestling1.9 / 0.5Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Covington
Strike Zones
Buckley
Covington
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD3BODY0LEGS24 absorbed
Buckley
Attacking
21HEAD3BODY0LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Covington targets the head (100% of attacks) — Buckley absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Buckley targets the head (88% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Covington
RND
Buckley
0/0R00/0

Covington · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.0W5.5W4.5W1.7L5.5W6.1W4.9W4.5W4.5W4.7W4.8W5.1L5.5W6.6L4.5W6.6L5.9L2014-082016-082019-082023-122024-12
WinLossTrend

Buckley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.6L5.2W5.2W1.5L5.5W6.0W4.2W6.9L3.5L5.2W4.5W6.7W6.4W6.1W5.6W6.6L6.6L2020-082022-022023-102025-062026-05
WinLossTrend

Covington · Last 5

L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

Buckley · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean BradyRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 5.6
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Nursulton RuziboevRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

News & Media

Colby Covington · Joaquin Buckley
← Back to fights