METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Tampa, USA
14 Dec 2024
Welterweight
VS
51%
Covington
49%
Buckley
Win Probability
★ Official Result
Joaquin BuckleywinsR3 · 4:42
def. Colby Covington · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Covington
→
Actual result
Buckley wins
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Covington at 51% vs Buckley at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Buckley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Covington's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Buckley has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CovingtonBuckley
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Covington
Buckley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
+76"
38
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Covington
Buckley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.2
58.0
53.2
Performance Avg
50.6
42
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
100
Covington
Buckley
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
1.6
38%
Strike Accuracy
41%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
21
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance21
0Clinch1
2Ground2
Covington
Buckley
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Covington
Buckley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
28
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/22 fights
Chin rating based on
17/29 fights
Covington
Buckley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Covington
Buckley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
55%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
2
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Covington
Buckley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
CovingtonBuckley
Strike Zones
Covington
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedBuckley
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Covington targets the head (100% of attacks) — Buckley absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Buckley targets the head (88% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Covington
RND
Buckley
0/0R00/0
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Buckley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
Buckley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 5.6UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Nursulton RuziboevRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05