Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley

Tampa, USA

14 Dec 2024

Welterweight

49%

Covington

51%

Buckley

Win Probability

Colby Covington

"Chaos"

17 – 5

5'11"72" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 55

Joaquin Buckley

"New Mansa"

21 – 8

Striker2-fight slide32 yrsSouthpaw76" reach5'10"

CFR 58

★ Official Result

Joaquin BuckleywinsR3 · 4:42

def. Colby Covington · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Buckley

→

Actual result

Buckley wins

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Covington at 49% vs Buckley at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

Covington's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Buckley has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

CovingtonBuckley

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Covington

Buckley

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"+

Height

5'10"

72"

Reach

+76"

Age

+32

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

Covington

Buckley

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

55.0

58.0

53.2

Performance Avg

50.6

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

100

Covington

Buckley

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.9

/ 10

6.8

/ 10

5.0

Style: Pressure

5.8

6.1

Style: Volume

3.5

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

6 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

6Distance21

0Clinch1

2Ground2

Covington

Buckley

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.7

/ 10

0.7

/ 10

1.9

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.5

1.7

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Covington

Buckley

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R5.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

5 fights ago

Last KO loss

9 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

17/22 fights

Chin rating based on

18/29 fights

Covington

Buckley

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

L · R3

L · Dec · R5

W · Dec · R5

L · Dec · R5

W · KO · R5

Last 5

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R5

W · R3

W · KO · R3

Covington

Buckley

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

42%

55%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Covington

Buckley

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.9

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

6.8

2.7

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.7

1.9

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.5

1.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

5.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.8

6.1

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

3.5

Covington

Strike Zones

Buckley

Covington

Attacking

8 landed

Absorbing

24 absorbed

Buckley

Attacking

24 landed

Absorbing

8 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Covington targets the head (100% of attacks) — Buckley absorbs 100% of strikes there

🎯Buckley targets the head (88% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Covington

RND

Buckley

0/0R00/0

Covington · Last 5

L · R3

Joaquin Buckley

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12

L · Dec · R5

Leon Edwards

Decision

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

W · Dec · R5

Jorge Masvidal

Decision

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03

L · Dec · R5

Kamaru Usman

Decision

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

W · KO · R5

Tyron Woodley

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

Buckley · Last 5

Upcoming

Mike Malott

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · 2026-10

L · Dec · R3

Sean Brady

Decision

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05

L · Dec · R5

Kamaru Usman

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06

W · R3

Colby Covington

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12

W · KO · R3

Stephen Thompson

KO/TKO

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

News & Media

Colby Covington · Joaquin Buckley

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