METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
Las Vegas, USA
26 May 2012
Heavyweight
VS
57%
Nelson
43%
Herman
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:51
★ Official Result
Roy NelsonwinsKO/TKOR1 · 0:51
def. Dave Herman · UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nelson
→
Actual result
Nelson wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 57% vs Herman at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Herman has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NelsonHerman
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nelson
Herman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+77"
50
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Herman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
14.2
55.6
Performance Avg
41.0
61
Quality of Victory
55
26
Momentum Score
20
Nelson
Herman
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.8
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
7.6
Style: Pressure
7.6
1.8
Style: Volume
0.4
8 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
1
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nelson
Herman
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Nelson
Herman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
22
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
5/28 fights
Nelson
Herman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
20
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Nelson
Herman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
100%
8
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Herman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
NelsonHerman
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedHerman
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Herman absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Herman targets the body (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Herman
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R5
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Herman · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Gabriel GonzagaKO/TKO
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07
L · Sub · R2
Antonio Rodrigo NogueiraSubmission
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Roy NelsonKO/TKO
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
L · KO · R2
Stefan StruveKO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Jon Olav EinemoKO/TKO
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