UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
Las Vegas, USA
26 May 2012
Heavyweight
VS
57%
Nelson
43%
Herman
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:51
RN
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22 – 14
6'0"73" reachOrthodox49 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 19
DH
Dave Herman
22 – 6
Knockout Artist4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'4"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nelson

This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 57% vs Herman at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Herman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Herman has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nelson
Herman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+77"
49
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Herman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
14.2
55.6
Performance Avg
41.0
61
Quality of Victory
55
26
Momentum Score
20
Nelson
Herman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.0
40%
Strike Accuracy
61%
9.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
8 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
1
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nelson
Herman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Nelson
Herman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
22
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
5/28 fights
Nelson
Herman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
20
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Nelson
Herman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
100%
8
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nelson
Herman
Striking9.8 / 10.0Volume1.8 / 0.4Grappling0.3 / 0.0Wrestling0.2 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.6 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
Nelson
Strike Zones
Herman
Nelson
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD3BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Herman
Attacking
0HEAD3BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Herman absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Herman targets the body (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nelson
RND
Herman
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.1L5.5L5.5L4.5W6.7L5.2W6.8L2009-122012-022013-102016-022017-04
WinLossTrend

Herman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.8
0105.2W2.8L1.5L2.8L1.5L2011-062012-022012-052012-102013-07
WinLossTrend

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

Herman · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07
L · Sub · R2
Antonio Rodrigo NogueiraRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Roy NelsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
L · KO · R2
Stefan StruveRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · KO · R2
Jon Olav EinemoRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06

News & Media

Roy Nelson · Dave Herman
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