UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Newark, USA
7 Jun 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
65%
Murzakanov
35%
Ribeiro
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Murzakanov
Murzakanov holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Ribeiro has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Murzakanov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Murzakanov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ribeiro has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Murzakanov
Ribeiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'3"
71"
Reach
+81"
37
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Murzakanov
Ribeiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
72.4
38.2
64.3
Performance Avg
33.8
50
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
54
Murzakanov
Ribeiro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.3
62%
Strike Accuracy
40%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
3
4
Body
2
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance8
0Clinch0
20Ground0
Murzakanov
Ribeiro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
0.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Murzakanov
Ribeiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
20
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/17 fights
Chin rating based on
7/27 fights
Murzakanov
Ribeiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
54
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Murzakanov
Ribeiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Murzakanov
Ribeiro
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
MurzakanovRibeiro
Strike Zones
Murzakanov
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedRibeiro
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Murzakanov targets the head (85% of attacks) — Ribeiro absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Ribeiro targets the head (38% of attacks) — Murzakanov absorbs 38% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Murzakanov
RND
Ribeiro
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Murzakanov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Ribeiro · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Murzakanov · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Paulo CostaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R1
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Brendson RibeiroRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · KO · R2
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Dustin JacobyRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
Ribeiro · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Oumar SyRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
L · KO · R1
Azamat MurzakanovRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Sub · R2
Diyar NurgozhayRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Caio MachadoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11