UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Las Vegas, USA
10 Sept 2022
Catch Weight
VS
61%
Chimaev
39%
Holland
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:13
Khamzat
Khamzat Chimaev
"Borz"
15 – 1
6'2"75" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 73
KH
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
29 – 15
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox81" reach6'3"
CFR 47

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chimaev

Chimaev holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Holland has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Chimaev has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Holland has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Chimaev
Holland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+81"
32+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chimaev
Holland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
73.2
47.0
65.1
Performance Avg
49.3
49
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
51
Chimaev
Holland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.2
55%
Strike Accuracy
52%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Chimaev
Holland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.4
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
4.4
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
4
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chimaev
Holland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
6
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/16 fights
Chin rating based on
29/44 fights
Chimaev
Holland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
51
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Chimaev
Holland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
69%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
4
Submission Wins
6
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chimaev
Holland
Striking4.0 / 4.3Volume4.5 / 3.6Grappling4.4 / 3.8Wrestling3.0 / 2.6Submission4.4 / 3.8Pressure7.4 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
4.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chimaev
RND
Holland
0/0R00/0

Chimaev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.2W5.0W6.1W5.8W4.7W5.6W5.6W5.9W6.4W6.6L2020-072021-102023-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Holland · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5W5.6W4.5W4.1L6.4W6.7W4.5W5.0W5.0W5.8L6.3L5.2W5.3W3.4L3.9L6.0W5.8W7.0L6.3L6.0W2.9L2.5L5.6W6.7W6.4L7.3L5.4W2018-082020-092022-092024-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Chimaev · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
Robert WhittakerRating 5.9
Submission
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09

Holland · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

News & Media

Khamzat Chimaev · Kevin Holland
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