UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
Miami, USA
9 Mar 2024
Heavyweight
VS
43%
Blaydes
57%
Almeida
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:36
Curtis
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
19 – 6
6'4"80" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 54
Jailton
Jailton Almeida
"Malhadinho"
22 – 5
Pressure Fighter2-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'3"
CFR 71

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Almeida

This is a genuine toss-up — Blaydes at 43% vs Almeida at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Almeida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Almeida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Blaydes's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Blaydes
Almeida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
80"+
Reach
79"
35
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Blaydes
Almeida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.9
70.9
53.4
Performance Avg
61.0
42
Quality of Victory
53
81
Momentum Score
100
Blaydes
Almeida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.7
56%
Strike Accuracy
64%
6.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.2
7 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
16Ground0
Blaydes
Almeida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Blaydes
Almeida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/25 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Blaydes
Almeida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Blaydes
Almeida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
4
7
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Blaydes
Almeida
Striking6.4 / 5.2Volume4.8 / 2.5Grappling1.0 / 4.3Wrestling0.7 / 3.0Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure5.6 / 8.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
Blaydes
Strike Zones
Almeida
Blaydes
Attacking
16HEAD0BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Almeida
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD0BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Blaydes targets the head (100% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Almeida targets the head (100% of attacks) — Blaydes absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Blaydes
RND
Almeida
0/0R00/0

Blaydes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2L5.2W4.5W4.2W4.5W5.5W1.9L4.5W5.2W5.1W5.8W3.3L5.6W5.5W7.4W2.7L7.0W3.9L4.8W7.5L2016-042018-062020-062023-042026-04
WinLossTrend

Almeida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W5.0W5.0W5.2W6.1W5.7W3.7L5.8W5.5W6.8L5.8L2022-022023-012024-032025-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Blaydes · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Josh HokitRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R2
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04

Almeida · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Curtis BlaydesRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03

News & Media

Curtis Blaydes · Jailton Almeida
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