UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Anaheim, USA
17 Feb 2024
Middleweight
VS
49%
Whittaker
51%
Costa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Robert
Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
27 – 9
6'0"73" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 53
Paulo
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
16 – 4
Striker2-fight win streak35 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'1"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Costa

This is a genuine toss-up — Whittaker at 49% vs Costa at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Whittaker's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Whittaker
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
73"+
Reach
72"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Whittaker
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.4
55.3
56.0
Performance Avg
52.9
46
Quality of Victory
44
71
Momentum Score
59
Whittaker
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.9
44%
Strike Accuracy
59%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.6
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
7
0
Body
2
8
Leg
5
RangeRange
25Distance14
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Whittaker
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.9
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Whittaker
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Whittaker
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Whittaker
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
35%
63%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Whittaker
Costa
Striking5.0 / 7.6Volume6.6 / 4.3Grappling1.6 / 0.9Wrestling1.1 / 0.6Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.6 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
Whittaker
Strike Zones
Costa
Whittaker
Attacking
17HEAD0BODY8LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY5LEGS14 absorbed
Costa
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY5LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD0BODY8LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Whittaker targets the head (68% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (50% of attacks) — Whittaker absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Whittaker
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0

Whittaker · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W5.5W5.7L2.1L4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.3W5.2W4.5W4.5W3.5L4.5W5.5W4.8W6.9L5.3W4.7L5.5W6.7W3.4L6.5L2012-122015-052018-062022-092025-07
WinLossTrend

Costa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W5.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W3.5L6.3L4.5W6.4L6.6L5.5W7.4W2017-032018-072021-102024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Whittaker · Last 5

Upcoming
Nikita Krylov
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Reinier de RidderRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R1
Khamzat ChimaevRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

Costa · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 7.4
KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Luke RockholdRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08

News & Media

Robert Whittaker · Paulo Costa
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