UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
Paris, France
6 Sept 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
51%
Bukauskas
49%
Craig
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Bukauskas
This is a genuine toss-up — Bukauskas at 51% vs Craig at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Craig has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Craig has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bukauskas's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Craig has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Bukauskas
Craig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
32+
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Bukauskas
Craig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.5
49.1
49.0
Performance Avg
50.4
41
Quality of Victory
52
81
Momentum Score
46
Bukauskas
Craig
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.5
43%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
0
0
Body
2
4
Leg
4
RangeRange
10Distance5
0Clinch1
12Ground0
Bukauskas
Craig
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Bukauskas
Craig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Bukauskas
Craig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
46
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Bukauskas
Craig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
6
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bukauskas
Craig
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
BukauskasCraig
Strike Zones
Bukauskas
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedCraig
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bukauskas targets the head (82% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Craig targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Bukauskas absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bukauskas
RND
Craig
0/0R00/0
Bukauskas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Craig · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Bukauskas · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Christian EdwardsRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Nikita KrylovRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Paul CraigRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaRating 4.8Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Rafael CerqueiraRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
Craig · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Upcoming
Rodolfo BellatoUFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalRating 7.2Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 4.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11