Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho

Paris, France

6 Sept 2025

Light Heavyweight

53%

Bukauskas

47%

Craig

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 5:00

Modestas Bukauskas

"The Baltic Gladiator"

20 – 7

6'3"76" reachSwitch32 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 56

Paul Craig

"Bearjew"

17 – 10

Pressure Fighter4-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'3"

CFR 49

★ Official Result

Modestas BukauskaswinsKO/TKOR1 · 5:00

def. Paul Craig · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Bukauskas

→

Actual result

Bukauskas wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Bukauskas at 53% vs Craig at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Craig has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Risk flags

Bukauskas's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Craig has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

BukauskasCraig

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Bukauskas

Craig

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'3"

Height

6'3"

76"

Reach

76"

32+

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

Bukauskas

Craig

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

55.8

49.1

51.0

Performance Avg

50.4

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Bukauskas

Craig

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

5.7

/ 10

4.3

/ 10

5.8

Style: Pressure

8.4

4.8

Style: Volume

0.9

4 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

3 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

10Distance5

0Clinch1

12Ground0

Bukauskas

Craig

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.0

/ 10

5.3

/ 10

1.4

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.7

1.1

Submission Style (/10)

6.7

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Bukauskas

Craig

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.2 stoppage

2 fights ago

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

14/27 fights

Chin rating based on

21/27 fights

Bukauskas

Craig

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

4-fight 📉 slide

W · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R3

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · KO · R1

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R2

L · Sub · R3

Bukauskas

Craig

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

56%

100%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bukauskas

Craig

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.7

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

4.3

2.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

5.3

1.4

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.7

1.1

Submission

Submission attack frequency

6.7

5.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

8.4

4.8

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

0.9

Bukauskas

Strike Zones

Craig

Bukauskas

Attacking

22 landed

Absorbing

6 absorbed

Craig

Attacking

6 landed

Absorbing

22 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Bukauskas targets the head (82% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 82% of strikes there

🎯Craig targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Bukauskas absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bukauskas

RND

Craig

0/0R00/0

Bukauskas · Last 5

W · KO · R2

Oumar Sy

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · 2026-09

W · Dec · R3

Christian Edwards

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05

L · KO · R3

Nikita Krylov

KO/TKO

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01

W · KO · R1

Paul Craig

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09

W · Dec · R3

Ion Cutelaba

Decision

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05

Craig · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Modestas Bukauskas

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09

Upcoming

Rodolfo Bellato

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06

L · Dec · R3

Bo Nickal

Decision

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11

L · KO · R2

Caio Borralho

KO/TKO

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

L · Sub · R3

Brendan Allen

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11

News & Media

Modestas Bukauskas · Paul Craig

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