UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
12 May 2018
Middleweight
VS
23%
Leites
77%
Hermansson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:10
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hermansson
Hermansson is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hermansson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Leites's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hermansson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Leites
Hermansson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
78"+
Reach
77"
44
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Leites
Hermansson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
53.8
48.8
Performance Avg
48.1
40
Quality of Victory
42
35
Momentum Score
97
Leites
Hermansson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.1
39%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
17
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground16
Leites
Hermansson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
3.9
Submission Style (/10)
2.7
5
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Leites
Hermansson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/37 fights
Chin rating based on
19/34 fights
Leites
Hermansson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
97
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Leites
Hermansson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
55%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
5
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Leites
Hermansson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
LeitesHermansson
Strike Zones
Leites
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedHermansson
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hermansson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Leites absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Leites
RND
Hermansson
0/0R00/0
Leites · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Hermansson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Leites · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Hector LombardRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Jack HermanssonRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
Hermansson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Joe PyferRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Roman DolidzeRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07