UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos
Winnipeg, Canada
16 Dec 2017
Light Heavyweight
VS
54%
Cannonier
46%
Blachowicz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cannonier
This is a genuine toss-up — Cannonier at 54% vs Blachowicz at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Blachowicz throws more volume but Cannonier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cannonier's chin rating of 22 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Blachowicz has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cannonier
Blachowicz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'2"
77"
Reach
+78"
42+
Age
43
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Cannonier
Blachowicz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.3
46.4
49.3
Performance Avg
53.0
46
Quality of Victory
48
82
Momentum Score
20
Cannonier
Blachowicz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
56%
Strike Accuracy
51%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
7 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
7
1
Body
2
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance8
0Clinch0
1Ground1
Cannonier
Blachowicz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.9
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cannonier
Blachowicz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
22
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/27 fights
Chin rating based on
22/40 fights
Cannonier
Blachowicz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
20
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
Cannonier
Blachowicz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
58%
7
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cannonier
Blachowicz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
CannonierBlachowicz
Strike Zones
Cannonier
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedBlachowicz
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cannonier targets the head (71% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Blachowicz targets the head (78% of attacks) — Cannonier absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cannonier
RND
Blachowicz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cannonier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Blachowicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Cannonier · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 6.3Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R4
Gregory RodriguesRating 7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R5
Caio BorralhoRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · KO · R4
Nassourdine ImavovRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R5
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
Blachowicz · Last 5
Upcoming
Bogdan GuskovDecision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.6Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Upcoming
Magomed AnkalaevDecision
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
W · KO · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05