UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Welterweight
VS
39%
Alves
61%
Covington
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Covington
Covington holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Alves has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alves has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alves
Covington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
35+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Covington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.1
61.2
49.3
Performance Avg
53.2
49
Quality of Victory
42
30
Momentum Score
100
Alves
Covington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.8
49%
Strike Accuracy
38%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch1
0Ground1
Alves
Covington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alves
Covington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
17/22 fights
Alves
Covington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Alves
Covington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
42%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Covington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
AlvesCovington
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedCovington
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the body (50% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Covington targets the head (100% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Covington
0/0R00/0
Alves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Alves · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.8Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · KO · R2
Jeremiah WellsRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
W · KO · R1
Mounir LazzezRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09