METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Welterweight
VS
42%
Alves
58%
Covington
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:26
★ Official Result
Warlley AlveswinsSubmissionR1 · 1:26
def. Colby Covington · UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Covington
→
Actual result
Alves wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 42% vs Covington at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlvesCovington
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alves
Covington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
35+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Covington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.1
55.0
49.3
Performance Avg
53.2
49
Quality of Victory
42
30
Momentum Score
100
Alves
Covington
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
5.9
Style: Pressure
5.0
3.0
Style: Volume
6.1
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch1
0Ground1
Alves
Covington
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alves
Covington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
17/22 fights
Alves
Covington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Alves
Covington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
42%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Covington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
AlvesCovington
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedCovington
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the body (50% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Covington targets the head (100% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Covington
0/0R00/0
Alves · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovKO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyDecision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · KO · R2
Jeremiah WellsKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
W · KO · R1
Mounir LazzezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalDecision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanDecision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09