UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2023
Welterweight
VS
57%
Nelson
43%
Barberena
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:51
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 57% vs Barberena at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Barberena throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barberena has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nelson
Barberena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
72"
37
Age
37
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Nelson
Barberena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
43.3
52.8
Performance Avg
43.9
46
Quality of Victory
42
61
Momentum Score
76
Nelson
Barberena
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
2.7
69%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
3
2
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
1Distance6
2Clinch0
7Ground1
Nelson
Barberena
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
6.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
4.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Barberena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
10
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Nelson
Barberena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
76
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Nelson
Barberena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
56%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
8
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Barberena
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
6.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
4.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
NelsonBarberena
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedBarberena
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Barberena absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Barberena targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Barberena
0/0R00/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Barberena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
Barberena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · Sub · R2
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Robbie LawlerRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07