Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

London, United Kingdom

18 Mar 2023

Welterweight

57%

Nelson

43%

Barberena

Win Probability

Submission

Round 1 · 4:51

Gunnar Nelson

"Gunni"

19 – 6

5'11"72" reachSwitch38 yrsSubmission Hunter

CFR 57

Bryan Barberena

"Bam Bam"

18 – 12

Well-Rounded4-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw72" reach6'0"

CFR 43

★ Official Result

Gunnar NelsonwinsSubmissionR1 · 4:51

def. Bryan Barberena · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Nelson

→

Actual result

Nelson wins

Submission · R1

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 57% vs Barberena at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Nelson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Barberena has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

NelsonBarberena

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Nelson

Barberena

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"

Height

+6'0"

72"

Reach

72"

Age

+37

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

Nelson

Barberena

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

56.8

43.3

52.8

Performance Avg

43.9

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Nelson

Barberena

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.3

/ 10

5.4

/ 10

7.5

Style: Pressure

5.3

2.9

Style: Volume

4.5

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

4 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

1Distance6

2Clinch0

7Ground1

Nelson

Barberena

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

6.9

/ 10

2.0

/ 10

4.8

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.4

8.0

Submission Style (/10)

1.1

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Nelson

Barberena

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R3.0 stoppage

6 fights ago

Last KO loss

9 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

16/25 fights

Chin rating based on

19/30 fights

Nelson

Barberena

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

Current form

4-fight 📉 slide

L · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Sub · R2

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R1

L · Sub · R2

W · KO · R2

Nelson

Barberena

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

80%

56%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nelson

Barberena

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.3

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

5.4

6.9

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.0

4.8

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.4

8.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.1

7.5

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.3

2.9

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.5

Nelson

Strike Zones

Barberena

Nelson

Attacking

10 landed

Absorbing

7 absorbed

Barberena

Attacking

7 landed

Absorbing

10 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Nelson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Barberena absorbs 80% of strikes there

🎯Barberena targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nelson

RND

Barberena

0/0R00/0

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Kevin Holland

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

W · Sub · R1

Bryan Barberena

Submission

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

W · Dec · R3

Takashi Sato

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03

L · Dec · R3

Gilbert Burns

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09

L · Dec · R3

Leon Edwards

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03

Barberena · Last 5

L · Sub · R2

Gerald Meerschaert

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03

L · Dec · R3

Makhmud Muradov

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

L · Sub · R1

Gunnar Nelson

Submission

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

L · Sub · R2

Rafael Dos Anjos

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12

W · KO · R2

Robbie Lawler

KO/TKO

UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07

News & Media

Gunnar Nelson · Bryan Barberena

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