UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
Jaragua do Sul, Brazil
18 May 2013
Bantamweight
VS
92%
Alcantara
8%
Santos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:31
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alcantara
Alcantara is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alcantara has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.
Striking split: Santos throws more volume but Alcantara connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Alcantara's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Santos has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alcantara
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'5"
71"+
Reach
67"
45
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Alcantara
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.9
1.5
48.0
Performance Avg
0.0
41
Quality of Victory
0
49
Momentum Score
0
Alcantara
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.7
46%
Strike Accuracy
31%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
0
3
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
11Distance2
2Clinch1
6Ground0
Alcantara
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alcantara
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/45 fights
Chin rating based on
3/43 fights
Alcantara
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Alcantara
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alcantara
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
AlcantaraSantos
Strike Zones
Alcantara
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedSantos
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alcantara targets the head (84% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Alcantara absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alcantara
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
Alcantara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Alcantara · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · KO · R1
Joe SotoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Sub · R1
Brian KelleherRating 1.8Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Luke SandersRating 5.2Submission
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
Santos · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Chris CariasoRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
L · Dec · R3
Ian McCallRating 5.5Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08
L · KO · R1
Iuri AlcantaraRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05