★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
7 Sept 2019
Lightweight
VS
30%
Nurmagomedov
70%
Poirier
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:06
KN
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
29 – 0
5'10"70" reachOrthodox37 yrs13-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 26
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw72" reach5'9"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Poirier

Poirier is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nurmagomedov
Poirier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+72"
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Nurmagomedov
Poirier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.9
61.4
68.2
Performance Avg
58.2
47
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
100
Nurmagomedov
Poirier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
54%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nurmagomedov
Poirier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
3.9
Submission Style (/10)
1.8
5
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nurmagomedov
Poirier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/29 fights
Chin rating based on
32/40 fights
Nurmagomedov
Poirier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
13-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Nurmagomedov
Poirier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
64%
2
KO / TKO Wins
10
5
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nurmagomedov
Poirier
Striking3.5 / 6.0Volume5.7 / 4.0Grappling4.2 / 2.2Wrestling2.9 / 1.6Submission3.9 / 1.8Pressure6.8 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Nurmagomedov
Strike Zones
Poirier
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 absorbed
Poirier
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the body (100% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Poirier targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nurmagomedov
RND
Poirier
0/0R00/0

Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5W4.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W5.2W5.6W5.0W4.5W7.3W6.6W6.7W2012-012013-092017-122020-10
WinLossTrend

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.6
Submission
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Sub · R4
Conor McGregorRating 7.3
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R5
Al IaquintaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5
Decision
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · 2017-12

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

News & Media

Khabib Nurmagomedov · Dustin Poirier
← Back to fights