UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Glendale, USA
14 Apr 2018
Middleweight
VS
39%
Jotko
61%
Tavares
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:16
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tavares
Tavares holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Jotko has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Tavares has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Jotko's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tavares has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jotko
Tavares
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
77"+
Reach
74"
36+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Jotko
Tavares
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.7
35.6
42.8
Performance Avg
40.1
28
Quality of Victory
29
60
Momentum Score
49
Jotko
Tavares
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.1
38%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
13
0
Body
1
0
Leg
6
RangeRange
5Distance11
0Clinch3
0Ground6
Jotko
Tavares
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.0
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jotko
Tavares
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
6
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
29/34 fights
Jotko
Tavares
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
49
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Jotko
Tavares
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
9%
13%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
14
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jotko
Tavares
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
JotkoTavares
Strike Zones
Jotko
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTavares
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jotko targets the head (100% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Tavares targets the head (65% of attacks) — Jotko absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jotko
RND
Tavares
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Jotko · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Tavares · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Jotko · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Gerald MeerschaertRating 5.6Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Misha CirkunovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
Tavares · Last 5
Upcoming
Marc-Andre BarriaultUFC Fight Night · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R3
Robert BryczekRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Gerald MeerschaertRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
JunYong ParkRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10