UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Las Vegas, USA
4 Feb 2023
Featherweight
VS
66%
Choi
34%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 70
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Choi
Choi holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Nelson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Choi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Choi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Choi's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Choi
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+71"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Choi
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.4
36.8
60.7
Performance Avg
41.6
57
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
36
Choi
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.0
56%
Strike Accuracy
47%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
21
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
1Clinch1
21Ground0
Choi
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Choi
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/21 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
Choi
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
36
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Choi
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
40%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Choi
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
ChoiNelson
Strike Zones
Choi
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedNelson
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Choi targets the body (91% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the body (67% of attacks) — Choi absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Choi
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Choi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Choi · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Daniel SantosRating 6.3KO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Bill AlgeoRating 5.5KO/TKO
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Upcoming
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L · KO · R2
Charles JourdainRating 3.5KO/TKO
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Nelson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3KO/TKO
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