Manel Kape vs Matheus Nicolau — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad

Las Vegas, USA

13 Mar 2021

Flyweight

66%

Kape

34%

Nicolau

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Manel Kape

"StarBoy"

22 – 7

5'5"68" reachSouthpaw32 yrs4-fight win streakKnockout Artist

CFR 73

Matheus Nicolau

19 – 6

Well-Rounded3-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'6"

CFR 38

★ Official Result

Matheus NicolauwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Manel Kape · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Kape

→

Actual result

Nicolau wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Kape holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Nicolau has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Kape has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.

Risk flags

Nicolau has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

KapeNicolau

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Kape

Nicolau

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'5"

Height

+5'6"

68"+

Reach

66"

32+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Kape

Nicolau

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

72.8

38.0

65.8

Performance Avg

44.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Kape

Nicolau

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

8.9

/ 10

2.7

/ 10

7.4

Style: Pressure

3.9

3.5

Style: Volume

7.0

6 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

29Distance26

0Clinch1

2Ground0

Kape

Nicolau

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.6

/ 10

2.9

/ 10

0.4

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.0

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

1.4

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Kape

Nicolau

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R1.3 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

11/29 fights

Chin rating based on

11/25 fights

Kape

Nicolau

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

4-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

W · KO · R3

W · KO · R1

W · KO · R3

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R2

L · KO · R1

W · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

Kape

Nicolau

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

75%

29%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kape

Nicolau

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

8.9

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

2.7

0.6

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.9

0.4

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.0

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.4

7.4

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.9

3.5

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

7.0

Kape

Strike Zones

Nicolau

Kape

Attacking

31 landed

Absorbing

27 absorbed

Nicolau

Attacking

27 landed

Absorbing

31 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Kape targets the head (58% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 58% of strikes there

🎯Nicolau targets the head (52% of attacks) — Kape absorbs 52% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kape

RND

Nicolau

0/0R00/0

Kape · Last 5

W · KO · R3

Kyoji Horiguchi

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

W · KO · R1

Brandon Royval

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12

W · KO · R3

Asu Almabayev

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03

W · KO · R3

Bruno Silva

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12

L · Dec · R3

Muhammad Mokaev

Decision

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

Nicolau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Asu Almabayev

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10

L · KO · R2

Alex Perez

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04

L · KO · R1

Brandon Royval

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

W · KO · R2

Matt Schnell

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12

W · Dec · R3

David Dvorak

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03

News & Media

Manel Kape · Matheus Nicolau

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