UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Las Vegas, USA
13 Mar 2021
Flyweight
VS
65%
Kape
35%
Nicolau
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kape
Kape holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Nicolau has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kape has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Kape has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Nicolau has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Kape
Nicolau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'6"
68"+
Reach
66"
32+
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Kape
Nicolau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.6
38.0
61.4
Performance Avg
44.7
56
Quality of Victory
32
89
Momentum Score
49
Kape
Nicolau
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.1
59%
Strike Accuracy
52%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
14
3
Body
10
10
Leg
3
RangeRange
29Distance26
0Clinch1
2Ground0
Kape
Nicolau
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.7
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kape
Nicolau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
32
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/29 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Kape
Nicolau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
49
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Kape
Nicolau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
29%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kape
Nicolau
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
7.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
KapeNicolau
Strike Zones
Kape
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedNicolau
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kape targets the head (58% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Nicolau targets the head (52% of attacks) — Kape absorbs 52% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kape
RND
Nicolau
0/0R00/0
Kape · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Nicolau · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Kape · Last 5
Upcoming
Kyoji HoriguchiUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · KO · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · KO · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Muhammad MokaevRating 6.9Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
Nicolau · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Alex PerezRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Matt SchnellRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
David DvorakRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03