UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Light Heavyweight
VS
27%
Silva
73%
Craig
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:59
Hd
CFR 19
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Craig
Craig is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Silva has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Silva's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Craig has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Silva
Craig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
36+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Silva
Craig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.6
49.1
44.7
Performance Avg
50.4
52
Quality of Victory
52
65
Momentum Score
46
Silva
Craig
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
11
2
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance11
2Clinch0
0Ground2
Silva
Craig
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.7
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Silva
Craig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/19 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Silva
Craig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
46
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Silva
Craig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
6
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Silva
Craig
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
SilvaCraig
Strike Zones
Silva
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedCraig
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Silva targets the head (50% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Craig targets the head (85% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Silva
RND
Craig
0/0R00/0
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Craig · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Silva · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Gokhan SakiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Ion CutelabaRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Jordan JohnsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
L · Sub · R2
Paul CraigRating 3.5Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · Sub · R2
Joachim ChristensenRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
Craig · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Upcoming
Rodolfo BellatoUFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalRating 7.2Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 4.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11