UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2020
Featherweight
VS
46%
Swanson
54%
Pineda
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pineda
This is a genuine toss-up — Swanson at 46% vs Pineda at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pineda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Swanson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Swanson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pineda has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Swanson
Pineda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
69"
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Swanson
Pineda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.5
52.9
48.8
Performance Avg
47.4
40
Quality of Victory
53
56
Momentum Score
85
Swanson
Pineda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.1
56%
Strike Accuracy
55%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
8 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
3
3
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
14Distance5
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Swanson
Pineda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.4
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Swanson
Pineda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
44
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/45 fights
Chin rating based on
14/45 fights
Swanson
Pineda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
85
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Swanson
Pineda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
8
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
4
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Swanson
Pineda
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
SwansonPineda
Strike Zones
Swanson
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedPineda
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Swanson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Pineda absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Pineda targets the head (60% of attacks) — Swanson absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Swanson
RND
Pineda
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Swanson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Pineda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Swanson · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Nate LandwehrRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Hakeem DawoduRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Jonathan MartinezRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
Pineda · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7Decision
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W · Sub · R2
Tucker LutzRating 5.2Submission
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Upcoming
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