UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Oct 2025
Middleweight
VS
55%
Aliskerov
45%
Park
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aliskerov
This is a genuine toss-up — Aliskerov at 55% vs Park at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aliskerov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Aliskerov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Park has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Aliskerov
Park
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
73"
33+
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Aliskerov
Park
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.7
57.0
62.8
Performance Avg
47.9
51
Quality of Victory
34
88
Momentum Score
100
Aliskerov
Park
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.9
1.9
62%
Strike Accuracy
54%
9.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
15
2
Body
8
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance22
0Clinch1
4Ground0
Aliskerov
Park
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aliskerov
Park
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
62
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/19 fights
Chin rating based on
13/26 fights
Aliskerov
Park
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Aliskerov
Park
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aliskerov
Park
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
AliskerovPark
Strike Zones
Aliskerov
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedPark
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aliskerov targets the head (90% of attacks) — Park absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Park targets the head (65% of attacks) — Aliskerov absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aliskerov
RND
Park
0/0R00/0
Aliskerov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Park · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Aliskerov · Last 5
Upcoming
Brunno FerreiraUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
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W · KO · R1
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Park · Last 5
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