UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev
Las Vegas, USA
2 Mar 2024
Flyweight
VS
45%
Schnell
55%
Erceg
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:26
Matt
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
17 – 10
5'8"70" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 38
Steve
Steve Erceg
"Astroboy"
14 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak30 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Erceg

This is a genuine toss-up — Schnell at 45% vs Erceg at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Schnell throws more volume but Erceg connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Schnell's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Schnell
Erceg
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
68"
36
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Schnell
Erceg
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.1
46.4
40.7
Performance Avg
43.6
37
Quality of Victory
31
45
Momentum Score
60
Schnell
Erceg
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.3
41%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Schnell
Erceg
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
3.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Schnell
Erceg
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/27 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Schnell
Erceg
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
60
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Schnell
Erceg
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
20%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Schnell
Erceg
Striking0.9 / 3.3Volume5.5 / 7.7Grappling4.8 / 1.9Wrestling3.4 / 1.3Submission4.3 / 0.0Pressure4.4 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
4.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Schnell
Strike Zones
Erceg
Schnell
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Erceg
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Schnell targets the head (50% of attacks) — Erceg absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Erceg targets the head (50% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Schnell
RND
Erceg
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Schnell · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0102.7L1.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W2.8L4.7W2.3L5.9W2.9L3.3L2.9L5.0W3.5L2016-122019-032022-052024-092025-11
WinLossTrend

Erceg · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.9W5.4W6.8L2.4L6.4L5.3W4.6W2023-062024-032024-082025-082026-05
WinLossTrend

Schnell · Last 5

Upcoming
Imanol Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R1
Joseph MoralesRating 3.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
Steve ErcegRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

Erceg · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Ode OsbourneRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Kai Kara-FranceRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Alexandre PantojaRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

News & Media

Matt Schnell · Steve Erceg
← Back to fights