UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
Las Vegas, USA
25 Feb 2023
Lightweight
VS
37%
Alves
63%
Aliev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RA
Rafael Alves
"The Turn"
20 – 12
5'8"68" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 36
Nurullo
Nurullo Aliev
"Tajik Eagle"
11 – 0
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak25 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aliev

Aliev holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Alves has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.

Striking split: Aliev throws more volume but Alves connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Alves
Aliev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
68"
Reach
+72"
35
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Aliev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
60.8
42.4
Performance Avg
55.0
54
Quality of Victory
25
29
Momentum Score
100
Alves
Aliev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.0
56%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
13
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground13
Alves
Aliev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Aliev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
100
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/32 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Alves
Aliev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
29
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Alves
Aliev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alves
Aliev
Striking0.5 / 2.0Volume0.5 / 10.0Grappling8.0 / 2.4Wrestling5.6 / 1.7Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure7.8 / 3.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
10.0
Alves
Strike Zones
Aliev
Alves
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD0BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Aliev
Attacking
13HEAD0BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (50% of attacks) — Aliev absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Aliev targets the head (100% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alves
RND
Aliev
0/0R00/0

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.1W5.2L6.8L2021-052021-112022-072023-02
WinLossTrend

Aliev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.2W4.5W2023-022025-012025-11
WinLossTrend

Alves · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Nurullo AlievRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
L · KO · R3
Drew DoberRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R1
Marc DiakieseRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Damir IsmagulovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05

Aliev · Last 3

W · Dec · R3
Shem RockRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael AlvesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02

News & Media

Rafael Alves · Nurullo Aliev
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