METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
Las Vegas, USA
25 Feb 2023
Lightweight
VS
30%
Alves
70%
Aliev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Nurullo AlievwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Rafael Alves · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Aliev
→
Actual result
Aliev wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Aliev is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlvesAliev
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alves
Aliev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
68"
Reach
+72"
35
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Aliev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.1
60.8
42.4
Performance Avg
55.0
54
Quality of Victory
25
29
Momentum Score
100
Alves
Aliev
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
7.8
Style: Pressure
3.0
0.5
Style: Volume
10.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
13
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground13
Alves
Aliev
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alves
Aliev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
100
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/32 fights
Chin rating based on
5/11 fights
Alves
Aliev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
29
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Alves
Aliev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Aliev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
10.0
AlvesAliev
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedAliev
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (50% of attacks) — Aliev absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Aliev targets the head (100% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Aliev
0/0R00/0
Alves · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Nurullo AlievDecision
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
L · KO · R3
Drew DoberKO/TKO
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R1
Marc DiakieseSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Damir IsmagulovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
Aliev · Last 5
Upcoming
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W · Dec · R3
Mike DavisDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Shem RockDecision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
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UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02