UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Manchester, United Kingdom
27 Jul 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
55%
Bukauskas
45%
Prachnio
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:12
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Bukauskas
This is a genuine toss-up — Bukauskas at 55% vs Prachnio at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Prachnio has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bukauskas's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Prachnio has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Bukauskas
Prachnio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
76"+
Reach
73"
32+
Age
37
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Bukauskas
Prachnio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.5
42.9
49.0
Performance Avg
34.0
41
Quality of Victory
33
81
Momentum Score
96
Bukauskas
Prachnio
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
9
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance10
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Bukauskas
Prachnio
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bukauskas
Prachnio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
11/26 fights
Bukauskas
Prachnio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
96
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Bukauskas
Prachnio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
25%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bukauskas
Prachnio
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.8
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
BukauskasPrachnio
Strike Zones
Bukauskas
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedPrachnio
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bukauskas targets the head (100% of attacks) — Prachnio absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Prachnio targets the head (90% of attacks) — Bukauskas absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bukauskas
RND
Prachnio
0/0R00/0
Bukauskas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Prachnio · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Bukauskas · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Christian EdwardsRating 4.5Decision
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L · KO · R3
Nikita KrylovRating 5.2KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Paul CraigRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaRating 4.8Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Rafael CerqueiraRating 5KO/TKO
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Prachnio · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jimmy CruteRating 3Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 4.8Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Devin ClarkRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 5.1Submission
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
William KnightRating 4.5Decision
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