UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
13 Nov 2021
Lightweight
VS
39%
Moises
61%
Alvarez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:01
Thiago
Thiago Moises
19 – 10
5'9"70" reachOrthodox31 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 40
Joel
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
23 – 4
Pressure Fighter33 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'3"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alvarez

Alvarez holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Moises has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Alvarez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Moises's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alvarez has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Moises
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+77"
31+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moises
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
60.9
42.7
Performance Avg
59.7
38
Quality of Victory
51
39
Momentum Score
59
Moises
Alvarez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
57%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
27
3
Body
12
3
Leg
5
RangeRange
11Distance36
0Clinch8
0Ground0
Moises
Alvarez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Moises
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/29 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Moises
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Moises
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Moises
Alvarez
Striking2.3 / 6.5Volume5.0 / 2.5Grappling4.2 / 3.3Wrestling2.9 / 2.3Submission3.8 / 3.8Pressure5.0 / 8.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
Moises
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Moises
Attacking
5HEAD3BODY3LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD12BODY5LEGS44 absorbed
Alvarez
Attacking
27HEAD12BODY5LEGS44 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD3BODY3LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Moises targets the head (45% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the head (61% of attacks) — Moises absorbs 61% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Moises
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0

Moises · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0106.5L4.5W5.5L5.3W5.2W5.4W5.3L2.8L5.2W6.5W4.5L5.5W6.7L4.6W1.9L6.1L2018-112020-102022-062024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Alvarez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.2W5.0W5.0W5.2W4.4L5.4W6.3W6.0W6.0W5.0L2019-022020-102023-072025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Moises · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gauge YoungRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Jared GordonRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Trey OgdenRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · KO · R3
Mitch RamirezRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03

Alvarez · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovRating 5
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Sub · R2
Marc DiakieseRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

News & Media

Thiago Moises · Joel Alvarez
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