METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
13 Nov 2021
Lightweight
VS
40%
Moises
60%
Alvarez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:01
★ Official Result
Joel AlvarezwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:01
def. Thiago Moises · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Alvarez
→
Actual result
Alvarez wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Alvarez holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Moises has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alvarez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Moises's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alvarez has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MoisesAlvarez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Moises
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+77"
31+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moises
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
59.3
42.7
Performance Avg
57.2
38
Quality of Victory
51
39
Momentum Score
59
Moises
Alvarez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
6.3
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
8.1
5.0
Style: Volume
2.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
27
3
Body
12
3
Leg
5
RangeRange
11Distance36
0Clinch8
0Ground0
Moises
Alvarez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
3
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moises
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/29 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Moises
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Moises
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moises
Alvarez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
MoisesAlvarez
Strike Zones
Moises
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedAlvarez
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moises targets the head (45% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the head (61% of attacks) — Moises absorbs 61% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moises
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0
Moises · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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