METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
13 Nov 2021
Lightweight
VS
39%
Moises
61%
Alvarez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:01
★ Official Result
Joel AlvarezwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:01
def. Thiago Moises · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Alvarez
→
Actual result
Alvarez wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Alvarez holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Moises has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alvarez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Moises's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alvarez has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MoisesAlvarez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Moises
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+77"
31+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moises
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
60.9
42.7
Performance Avg
59.7
38
Quality of Victory
51
39
Momentum Score
59
Moises
Alvarez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
2.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
57%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
27
3
Body
12
3
Leg
5
RangeRange
11Distance36
0Clinch8
0Ground0
Moises
Alvarez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Moises
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/29 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Moises
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Moises
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moises
Alvarez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
MoisesAlvarez
Strike Zones
Moises
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedAlvarez
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moises targets the head (45% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the head (61% of attacks) — Moises absorbs 61% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moises
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0
Moises · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Alvarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Moises · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gauge YoungRating 6.1Decision
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L · KO · R1
Jared GordonRating 1.9KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Trey OgdenRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 6.7Decision
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W · KO · R3
Mitch RamirezRating 5.5KO/TKO
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Alvarez · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovRating 5Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Sub · R2
Marc DiakieseRating 5.4Submission
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