★ Championship Bout · Flyweight
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale
Las Vegas, USA
3 Dec 2016
Flyweight
VS
41%
Johnson
59%
Elliott
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Elliott
This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 41% vs Elliott at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Striking split: Elliott throws more volume but Johnson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Elliott has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Johnson
Elliott
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'7"
66"
Reach
66"
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Johnson
Elliott
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.2
36.8
69.9
Performance Avg
37.9
58
Quality of Victory
33
85
Momentum Score
43
Johnson
Elliott
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.4
58%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Johnson
Elliott
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.1
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Elliott
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
26
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
5
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/30 fights
Chin rating based on
22/36 fights
Johnson
Elliott
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
43
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Johnson
Elliott
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
30%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Elliott
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
JohnsonElliott
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedElliott
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Elliott targets the body (100% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Elliott
0/0R00/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Elliott · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Henry CejudoRating 7Decision
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W · Sub · R5
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W · Dec · R5
Tim ElliottRating 4.6Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Henry CejudoRating 6.5KO/TKO
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Elliott · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
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