UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Las Vegas, USA
7 Dec 2024
Featherweight
VS
53%
Mitchell
47%
Gracie
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mitchell
This is a genuine toss-up — Mitchell at 53% vs Gracie at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Gracie has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Striking split: Gracie throws more volume but Mitchell connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Mitchell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mitchell
Gracie
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
70"
31+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Mitchell
Gracie
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
50.3
48.6
Performance Avg
42.4
31
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
43
Mitchell
Gracie
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.0
55%
Strike Accuracy
46%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
2
3
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance3
1Clinch0
3Ground0
Mitchell
Gracie
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mitchell
Gracie
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
4/8 fights
Mitchell
Gracie
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
43
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Mitchell
Gracie
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mitchell
Gracie
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
MitchellGracie
Strike Zones
Mitchell
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedGracie
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mitchell targets the head (70% of attacks) — Gracie absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Gracie targets the head (67% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mitchell
RND
Gracie
0/0R00/0
Mitchell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Gracie · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Mitchell · Last 5
Upcoming
Victor HenryUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R2
Jean SilvaRating 4.3Submission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R3
Kron GracieRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Gracie · Last 4
L · KO · R3
Bryce MitchellRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Charles JourdainRating 6.3Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
W · Sub · R1
Alex CaceresRating 5.2Submission
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