UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Las Vegas, USA
20 Aug 2016
Welterweight
VS
57%
Covington
43%
Griffin
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Covington
This is a genuine toss-up — Covington at 57% vs Griffin at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Griffin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Covington's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Griffin has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Covington
Griffin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
+76"
38+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Covington
Griffin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.2
46.4
53.2
Performance Avg
39.0
42
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
74
Covington
Griffin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.0
38%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch1
2Ground0
Covington
Griffin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Covington
Griffin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
48
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/22 fights
Chin rating based on
19/33 fights
Covington
Griffin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
74
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Covington
Griffin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
38%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Covington
Griffin
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.6
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
CovingtonGriffin
Strike Zones
Covington
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedGriffin
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Covington targets the head (100% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Griffin targets the head (50% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Covington
RND
Griffin
0/0R00/0
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Griffin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
Griffin · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Victor ValenzuelaRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 4.8Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael MoralesRating 7.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07