METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Las Vegas, USA
20 Aug 2016
Welterweight
VS
54%
Covington
46%
Griffin
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:18
★ Official Result
Colby CovingtonwinsKO/TKOR3 · 2:18
def. Max Griffin · UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Covington
→
Actual result
Covington wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Covington at 54% vs Griffin at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Covington's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Griffin has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CovingtonGriffin
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Covington
Griffin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
+76"
38+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Covington
Griffin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.0
46.4
53.2
Performance Avg
39.0
42
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
74
Covington
Griffin
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
3.9
6.1
Style: Volume
5.8
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch1
2Ground0
Covington
Griffin
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Covington
Griffin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
48
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/22 fights
Chin rating based on
19/33 fights
Covington
Griffin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
74
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Covington
Griffin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
38%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Covington
Griffin
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.6
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
CovingtonGriffin
Strike Zones
Covington
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedGriffin
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Covington targets the head (100% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Griffin targets the head (50% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Covington
RND
Griffin
0/0R00/0
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalDecision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanDecision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
Griffin · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Victor ValenzuelaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael MoralesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07