UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Featherweight
VS
50%
Stephens
50%
Kattar
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:49
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
5'9"71" reachOrthodox40 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Calvin
Calvin Kattar
23 – 10
Striker5-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Stephens

This is a genuine toss-up — Stephens at 50% vs Kattar at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Kattar throws more volume but Stephens connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Kattar has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Stephens
Kattar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+72"
40
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stephens
Kattar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
44.3
41.1
Performance Avg
44.4
40
Quality of Victory
43
76
Momentum Score
33
Stephens
Kattar
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.5
42%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
7 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
17
2
Body
5
7
Leg
4
RangeRange
16Distance21
1Clinch1
0Ground4
Stephens
Kattar
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stephens
Kattar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
15/33 fights
Stephens
Kattar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
33
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
Stephens
Kattar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
57%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stephens
Kattar
Striking5.5 / 6.7Volume4.6 / 4.4Grappling1.1 / 1.0Wrestling0.8 / 0.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 5.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Stephens
Strike Zones
Kattar
Stephens
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY7LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD5BODY4LEGS26 absorbed
Kattar
Attacking
17HEAD5BODY4LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY7LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stephens targets the head (47% of attacks) — Kattar absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Kattar targets the head (65% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 65% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stephens
RND
Kattar
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Kattar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.2W5.5W6.3L5.0W5.0W5.5L5.8W5.2W6.6L5.5W5.6L3.5L6.5L6.5L7.4L2017-072019-062021-012024-042025-07
WinLossTrend

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

Kattar · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Steve GarciaRating 7.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Youssef ZalalRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Arnold AllenRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06

News & Media

Jeremy Stephens · Calvin Kattar
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