UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
Las Vegas, USA
2 Feb 2013
Light Heavyweight
VS
52%
Evans
48%
Nogueira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RE
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
19 – 8
6'0"75" reachOrthodox46 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
RN
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23 – 10
Striker2-fight slide49 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'2"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Evans

This is a genuine toss-up — Evans at 52% vs Nogueira at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Nogueira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Evans's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nogueira has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Evans
Nogueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
75"
46+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Evans
Nogueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.3
14.4
53.1
Performance Avg
47.0
46
Quality of Victory
48
25
Momentum Score
20
Evans
Nogueira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.6
6 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
12
2
Body
7
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance18
2Clinch3
0Ground0
Evans
Nogueira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Evans
Nogueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
26
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/27 fights
Chin rating based on
13/33 fights
Evans
Nogueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
20
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Evans
Nogueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
67%
6
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Evans
Nogueira
Striking5.6 / 7.6Volume5.8 / 3.6Grappling1.4 / 0.8Wrestling1.0 / 0.6Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.9 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Evans
Strike Zones
Nogueira
Evans
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD7BODY2LEGS21 absorbed
Nogueira
Attacking
12HEAD7BODY2LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Evans targets the head (78% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Nogueira targets the head (57% of attacks) — Evans absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Evans
RND
Nogueira
0/0R00/0

Evans · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.2W5.2W2.1L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W7.3L5.5L4.5W5.0W5.5L1.9L5.5L5.5L2.7L2005-112008-092012-012016-042018-06
WinLossTrend

Nogueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.0W2.8L5.2W1.9L5.5L2009-112011-122016-052020-07
WinLossTrend

Evans · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Anthony SmithRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05

News & Media

Rashad Evans · Rogerio Nogueira
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