METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
Las Vegas, USA
2 Feb 2013
Light Heavyweight
VS
52%
Evans
48%
Nogueira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Rogerio NogueirawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Rashad Evans · UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Evans
→
Actual result
Nogueira wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Evans at 52% vs Nogueira at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Evans's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nogueira has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EvansNogueira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Evans
Nogueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
75"
46+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Evans
Nogueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.3
14.4
53.1
Performance Avg
47.0
46
Quality of Victory
48
25
Momentum Score
20
Evans
Nogueira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
7.6
/ 10
4.9
Style: Pressure
6.0
5.8
Style: Volume
3.6
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
12
2
Body
7
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance18
2Clinch3
0Ground0
Evans
Nogueira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Evans
Nogueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
26
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/27 fights
Chin rating based on
13/33 fights
Evans
Nogueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
20
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Evans
Nogueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
67%
6
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Evans
Nogueira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
EvansNogueira
Strike Zones
Evans
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedNogueira
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Evans targets the head (78% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Nogueira targets the head (57% of attacks) — Evans absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Evans
RND
Nogueira
0/0R00/0
Evans · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Anthony SmithKO/TKO
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyDecision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
Nogueira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannKO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsKO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05