UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Austin, USA
2 Dec 2023
Middleweight
VS
55%
Reese
45%
Brundage
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:49
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Reese
This is a genuine toss-up — Reese at 55% vs Brundage at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brundage has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Reese throws more volume but Brundage connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Reese's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brundage has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Reese
Brundage
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
72"
32
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Reese
Brundage
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.0
45.2
46.8
Performance Avg
49.0
40
Quality of Victory
53
88
Momentum Score
26
Reese
Brundage
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.5
50%
Strike Accuracy
53%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
7
0
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance4
1Clinch0
2Ground5
Reese
Brundage
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.9
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Reese
Brundage
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
24
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/13 fights
Chin rating based on
16/21 fights
Reese
Brundage
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
26
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Reese
Brundage
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
83%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reese
Brundage
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.5
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.1
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
ReeseBrundage
Strike Zones
Reese
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedBrundage
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reese targets the head (75% of attacks) — Brundage absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Brundage targets the head (78% of attacks) — Reese absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reese
RND
Brundage
0/0R00/0
Reese · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Brundage · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
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L · Dec · R3
Michel PereiraRating 6.1Decision
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