UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson
Austin, USA
22 Nov 2014
Flyweight
VS
52%
Pickett
48%
Camus
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pickett
This is a genuine toss-up — Pickett at 52% vs Camus at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Pickett has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Pickett throws more volume but Camus connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pickett's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pickett
Camus
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
68"+
Reach
66"
47
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pickett
Camus
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.8
12.5
36.4
Performance Avg
32.1
37
Quality of Victory
25
60
Momentum Score
45
Pickett
Camus
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
30%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
22
2
Body
2
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance21
0Clinch3
0Ground0
Pickett
Camus
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pickett
Camus
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
82
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/39 fights
Chin rating based on
8/24 fights
Pickett
Camus
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Pickett
Camus
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pickett
Camus
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
PickettCamus
Strike Zones
Pickett
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedCamus
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pickett targets the head (56% of attacks) — Camus absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Camus targets the head (92% of attacks) — Pickett absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pickett
RND
Camus
0/0R00/0
Pickett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Camus · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Pickett · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Marlon VeraRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Urijah FaberRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Sub · R1
Iuri AlcantaraRating 1.5Submission
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · Dec · R3
Francisco RiveraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02
L · KO · R2
Thomas AlmeidaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
Camus · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kyoji HoriguchiRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
Brad PickettRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · 2014-11
L · Dec · R3
Chris HoldsworthRating 5.5Decision
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
Upcoming
Yaotzin MezaUFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01