UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
13 Oct 2012
Welterweight
VS
55%
Fitch
45%
Silva
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JF
Jon Fitch
30 – 7
6'0"74" reachOrthodox48 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 21
ES
Erick Silva
19 – 9
Pressure Fighter2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'0"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Fitch

This is a genuine toss-up — Fitch at 55% vs Silva at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Silva has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Silva has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Fitch
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
74"
48
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Fitch
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.0
17.5
52.4
Performance Avg
51.3
32
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
46
Fitch
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
57%
Strike Accuracy
57%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
57
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
1Clinch0
56Ground0
Fitch
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.4
/ 10
5.7
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.0
2.1
Submission Style (/10)
7.1
3
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Fitch
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
4
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/37 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Fitch
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Fitch
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
5
10
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Fitch
Silva
Striking2.4 / 3.8Volume7.4 / 0.9Grappling3.4 / 5.7Wrestling2.4 / 4.0Submission2.1 / 7.1Pressure4.5 / 8.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.7
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.0
2.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.1
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
Fitch
Strike Zones
Silva
Fitch
Attacking
57HEAD1BODY0LEGS58 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Silva
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
57HEAD1BODY0LEGS58 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Fitch targets the head (98% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 98% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Fitch
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0

Fitch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.5L2005-102007-062009-072012-102013-02
WinLossTrend

Silva · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W4.0L5.0W5.5L5.0W2.8L5.0W3.1L5.0W5.0W6.1L2.8L5.5W2.8L5.5L2011-082013-062014-122016-092017-12
WinLossTrend

Fitch · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Erick SilvaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Johny HendricksRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
Upcoming
BJ Penn
Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08

Silva · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jordan MeinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos · 2017-12
L · KO · R2
Yancy MedeirosRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R3
Luan ChagasRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · KO · R2
Nordine TalebRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08

News & Media

Jon Fitch · Erick Silva
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