UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine
Columbus, USA
7 Mar 2009
Heavyweight
VS
57%
Carwin
43%
Gonzaga
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:09
SC
Shane Carwin
"The Engineer"
12 – 2
6'2"80" reachOrthodox51 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 25
GG
Gabriel Gonzaga
"Napao"
17 – 11
Striker47 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'2"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Carwin

This is a genuine toss-up — Carwin at 57% vs Gonzaga at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Carwin has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.

Carwin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gonzaga has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Carwin
Gonzaga
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
80"+
Reach
76"
51
Age
+47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carwin
Gonzaga
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.1
18.6
68.7
Performance Avg
53.9
70
Quality of Victory
54
65
Momentum Score
59
Carwin
Gonzaga
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.2
54%
Strike Accuracy
48%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
5
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch1
2Ground1
Carwin
Gonzaga
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Carwin
Gonzaga
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
8
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/14 fights
Chin rating based on
22/28 fights
Carwin
Gonzaga
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Carwin
Gonzaga
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
92%
4
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
4
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carwin
Gonzaga
Striking10.0 / 6.9Volume1.3 / 1.8Grappling0.0 / 2.9Wrestling0.0 / 2.0Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure9.0 / 8.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.9
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
Carwin
Strike Zones
Gonzaga
Carwin
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Gonzaga
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Carwin targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gonzaga absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Gonzaga targets the head (100% of attacks) — Carwin absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carwin
RND
Gonzaga
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Carwin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W2.1L5.5L2008-052008-102009-032010-032010-072011-06
WinLossTrend

Gonzaga · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.5W5.2W5.0W5.0W2.8L2.8L5.0W5.0W1.5L5.0W1.5L5.5L5.0W5.2W1.5L5.0W5.0W6.6L1.5L2.8L4.5W2.7L2005-112008-072012-012014-122016-04
WinLossTrend

Carwin · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Junior Dos SantosRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06
L · Sub · R2
Brock LesnarRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · KO · R1
Frank MirRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · 2010-03
W · KO · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine · 2009-03
W · KO · R1
Neil WainRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 89: Bisping vs Leben · 2008-10

Gonzaga · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Konstantin ErokhinRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
L · KO · R3
Mirko FilipovicRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.6
Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01

News & Media

Shane Carwin · Gabriel Gonzaga
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