UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
Milwaukee, USA
14 Aug 2011
Lightweight
VS
48%
Volkmann
52%
Castillo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JV
Jacob Volkmann
"Christmas"
19 – 7
5'9"71" reachSouthpaw45 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 16
DC
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17 – 10
Well-Rounded4-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Castillo

This is a genuine toss-up — Volkmann at 48% vs Castillo at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Castillo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Volkmann's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Castillo has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Volkmann
Castillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
45+
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Volkmann
Castillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
17.2
41.9
Performance Avg
40.6
30
Quality of Victory
34
70
Momentum Score
89
Volkmann
Castillo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.9
37%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
1
Body
7
0
Leg
8
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch0
2Ground11
Volkmann
Castillo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Volkmann
Castillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
46
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/26 fights
Chin rating based on
14/27 fights
Volkmann
Castillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
89
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Volkmann
Castillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
17%
29%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Volkmann
Castillo
Striking1.2 / 3.9Volume7.9 / 6.7Grappling3.3 / 1.7Wrestling2.3 / 1.2Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure3.0 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Volkmann
Strike Zones
Castillo
Volkmann
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD7BODY8LEGS15 absorbed
Castillo
Attacking
0HEAD7BODY8LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Volkmann targets the head (75% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Castillo targets the legs (53% of attacks) — Volkmann absorbs 53% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Volkmann
RND
Castillo
0/0R00/0

Volkmann · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.0W4.7L2009-112010-082011-122013-02
WinLossTrend

Castillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.6W6.0L5.2W6.0L2.8L5.9L5.5L2011-032012-052013-122015-072015-12
WinLossTrend

Volkmann · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02
W · Sub · R1
Shane RollerRating 5
Submission
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
L · Sub · R1
Paul SassRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
W · Dec · R3
Efrain EscuderoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
W · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08

Castillo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6
Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04

News & Media

Jacob Volkmann · Danny Castillo
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