METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Interim Lightweight
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
Las Vegas, USA
7 Oct 2017
Interim Lightweight
VS
56%
Ferguson
44%
Lee
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:02
★ Official Result
Tony FergusonwinsSubmissionR3 · 4:02
def. Kevin Lee · UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferguson
→
Actual result
Ferguson wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 56% vs Lee at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lee has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FergusonLee
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferguson
Lee
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
76"
Reach
+77"
42
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Lee
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
35.2
54.2
Performance Avg
48.3
49
Quality of Victory
42
52
Momentum Score
53
Ferguson
Lee
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
5.6
3.4
Style: Volume
4.1
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
4
1
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
1Clinch0
10Ground2
Ferguson
Lee
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.6
6
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferguson
Lee
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
24
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
13 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Ferguson
Lee
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
53
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Ferguson
Lee
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
55%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Lee
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
FergusonLee
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedLee
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (86% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Lee targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Lee
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenSubmission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerKO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Lee · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Rinat FakhretdinovSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · KO · R1
Gregor GillespieKO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
L · Sub · R4
Rafael Dos AnjosSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05