★ Championship Bout · Interim Lightweight
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
Las Vegas, USA
7 Oct 2017
Interim Lightweight
VS
56%
Ferguson
44%
Lee
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:02
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
5'11"76" reachOrthodox42 yrs8-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
KL
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded3-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox77" reach5'9"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ferguson

This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 56% vs Lee at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ferguson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lee has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ferguson
Lee
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
76"
Reach
+77"
42
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Lee
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
35.2
54.2
Performance Avg
48.3
49
Quality of Victory
42
52
Momentum Score
53
Ferguson
Lee
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
4
1
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
1Clinch0
10Ground2
Ferguson
Lee
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Lee
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
24
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
13 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Ferguson
Lee
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
53
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Ferguson
Lee
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
55%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferguson
Lee
Striking3.3 / 3.0Volume3.4 / 4.1Grappling3.8 / 3.8Wrestling2.7 / 2.6Submission4.0 / 3.6Pressure6.1 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Ferguson
Strike Zones
Lee
Ferguson
Attacking
12HEAD1BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Lee
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD1BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (86% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Lee targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferguson
RND
Lee
0/0R00/0

Ferguson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.0W4.5W5.6L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.7W5.8W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.2W5.6L6.9L6.5L3.5L3.4L4.7L7.2L2.3L2011-062014-082016-112021-052024-08
WinLossTrend

Lee · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.6L4.5W6.0W5.2W5.2W5.8W3.3L5.0W5.5L3.6L5.0W4.2L6.4L3.1L2014-022015-122017-062019-112023-07
WinLossTrend

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

Lee · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Rinat FakhretdinovRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · KO · R1
Gregor GillespieRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
L · Sub · R4
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

News & Media

Tony Ferguson · Kevin Lee
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