UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Rotterdam, Netherlands
8 May 2016
Welterweight
VS
27%
Tumenov
73%
Nelson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:15
AT
Albert Tumenov
"Einstein"
18 – 4
5'11"73" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 21
Gunnar
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
19 – 6
Submission Hunter37 yrsSwitch72" reach5'11"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nelson

Nelson is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Tumenov throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Nelson has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tumenov
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
72"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Tumenov
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
56.8
52.6
Performance Avg
52.8
46
Quality of Victory
46
76
Momentum Score
61
Tumenov
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.8
42%
Strike Accuracy
69%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
8
4
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance5
2Clinch0
0Ground4
Tumenov
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.9
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tumenov
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
68
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/22 fights
Chin rating based on
16/25 fights
Tumenov
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
61
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Tumenov
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
80%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
8
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tumenov
Nelson
Striking7.3 / 1.3Volume4.5 / 2.9Grappling1.0 / 6.9Wrestling0.7 / 4.8Submission0.0 / 8.0Pressure6.1 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.9
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Tumenov
Strike Zones
Nelson
Tumenov
Attacking
5HEAD4BODY1LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD4BODY1LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tumenov targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (89% of attacks) — Tumenov absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tumenov
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Tumenov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W3.8L5.1L2014-022014-102015-102016-052016-10
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.0W4.5W5.0W5.6W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.2W2.0L5.2W6.6L5.7L4.7W5.4W6.1L2012-092014-102017-032019-092025-03
WinLossTrend

Tumenov · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1
Submission
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
L · Sub · R2
Gunnar NelsonRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Lorenz LarkinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R1
Alan JoubanRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Nicholas MusokeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03

News & Media

Albert Tumenov · Gunnar Nelson
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