METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Rotterdam, Netherlands
8 May 2016
Welterweight
VS
27%
Tumenov
73%
Nelson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:15
★ Official Result
Gunnar NelsonwinsSubmissionR2 · 3:15
def. Albert Tumenov · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nelson
→
Actual result
Nelson wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Nelson is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Nelson has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
TumenovNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Tumenov
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
72"
34+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Tumenov
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
56.8
52.6
Performance Avg
52.8
46
Quality of Victory
46
76
Momentum Score
61
Tumenov
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.3
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
7.5
4.5
Style: Volume
2.9
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
8
4
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance5
2Clinch0
0Ground4
Tumenov
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
/ 10
6.9
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
8.0
0
Submission wins
8
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tumenov
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
68
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/22 fights
Chin rating based on
16/25 fights
Tumenov
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
61
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Tumenov
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
80%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
8
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tumenov
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.9
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
TumenovNelson
Strike Zones
Tumenov
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedNelson
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tumenov targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (89% of attacks) — Tumenov absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tumenov
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Tumenov · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Leon EdwardsSubmission
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
L · Sub · R2
Gunnar NelsonSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Lorenz LarkinDecision
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R1
Alan JoubanKO/TKO
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Nicholas MusokeDecision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandDecision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaSubmission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03