UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Featherweight
VS
42%
Rodriguez
58%
Bashi
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Christian
Christian Rodriguez
"Ceerod"
12 – 4
5'7"71" reachOrthodox28 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 46
Austin
Austin Bashi
14 – 1
Submission Hunter24 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'6"
CFR 63

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bashi

This is a genuine toss-up — Rodriguez at 42% vs Bashi at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Bashi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.

Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Rodriguez
Bashi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
70"
28
Age
+24
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rodriguez
Bashi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.2
63.2
40.7
Performance Avg
52.4
31
Quality of Victory
54
64
Momentum Score
71
Rodriguez
Bashi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
41%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
7
9
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance8
3Clinch1
2Ground1
Rodriguez
Bashi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodriguez
Bashi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/16 fights
Chin rating based on
2/15 fights
Rodriguez
Bashi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
71
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Rodriguez
Bashi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rodriguez
Bashi
Striking1.1 / 1.0Volume7.5 / 1.0Grappling3.5 / 8.0Wrestling2.5 / 5.6Submission2.0 / 10.0Pressure3.1 / 8.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
Rodriguez
Strike Zones
Bashi
Rodriguez
Attacking
14HEAD9BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Bashi
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD9BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (61% of attacks) — Bashi absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Bashi targets the head (70% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 70% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rodriguez
RND
Bashi
0/0R00/0

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0106.0L5.0W6.1W5.5W5.8W1.7L5.9W6.7L6.2L2022-022023-102025-012025-08
WinLossTrend

Bashi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.3
0106.1L6.5W2025-012025-08
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · Last 5

Upcoming
Hyder Amil
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Austin BashiRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Sub · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07

Bashi · Last 2

W · Sub · R1
John YannisRating 6.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01

News & Media

Christian Rodriguez · Austin Bashi
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