UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Los Angeles, USA
24 Oct 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
87%
Kingsbury
13%
Al-Hassan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kingsbury
Kingsbury is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kingsbury has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.
Striking split: Al-Hassan throws more volume but Kingsbury connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Kingsbury
Al-Hassan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
79"
Reach
44
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kingsbury
Al-Hassan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
2.4
38.0
Performance Avg
0.0
34
Quality of Victory
0
74
Momentum Score
0
Kingsbury
Al-Hassan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.6
38%
Strike Accuracy
30%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
8
1
Body
4
7
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance14
3Clinch1
0Ground0
Kingsbury
Al-Hassan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kingsbury
Al-Hassan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/17 fights
Chin rating based on
2/18 fights
Kingsbury
Al-Hassan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Kingsbury
Al-Hassan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kingsbury
Al-Hassan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
KingsburyAl-Hassan
Strike Zones
Kingsbury
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedAl-Hassan
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kingsbury targets the legs (78% of attacks) — Al-Hassan absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Al-Hassan targets the head (53% of attacks) — Kingsbury absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kingsbury
RND
Al-Hassan
0/0R00/0
Kingsbury · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Al-Hassan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Kingsbury · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Patrick CumminsRating 5.5Decision
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Al-Hassan · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Kyle KingsburyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10
L · Sub · R1
Steve CantwellRating 1.5Submission
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