UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Austin, USA
2 Dec 2023
Lightweight
VS
55%
Turner
45%
Green
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:49
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Turner
This is a genuine toss-up — Turner at 55% vs Green at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Turner has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Green has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Turner's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Green has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Turner
Green
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'10"
77"+
Reach
71"
31+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Turner
Green
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.7
49.0
56.4
Performance Avg
45.9
56
Quality of Victory
38
65
Momentum Score
85
Turner
Green
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.1
3.2
51%
Strike Accuracy
55%
7.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
5
2
Body
3
5
Leg
7
RangeRange
18Distance14
0Clinch1
15Ground0
Turner
Green
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Turner
Green
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
30/52 fights
Turner
Green
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
85
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Turner
Green
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
44%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Turner
Green
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.9
8.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
1.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
TurnerGreen
Strike Zones
Turner
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedGreen
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Turner targets the head (79% of attacks) — Green absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Green targets the legs (47% of attacks) — Turner absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Turner
RND
Green
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Turner · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Green · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Turner · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Edson BarbozaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Sub · R1
Ignacio BahamondesRating 2.8Submission
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
King GreenRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Dan HookerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
Green · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jeremy StephensRating 5.5Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Lance Gibson Jr.Rating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Sub · R1
Paddy PimblettRating 3.2Submission
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