UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
28 Jun 2025
Heavyweight
VS
87%
Diniz
13%
Hines
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jhonata
Jhonata Diniz
9 – 2
6'4"79" reachOrthodox34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 52
Alvin
Alvin Hines
"Goozie"
7 – 1
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'2"
CFR 8

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Diniz

Diniz is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Diniz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.

Striking split: Hines throws more volume but Diniz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Diniz
Hines
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
74"
34
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Diniz
Hines
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.5
7.8
45.0
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
74
Momentum Score
0
Diniz
Hines
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.7
60%
Strike Accuracy
37%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
38
Head
26
1
Body
11
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
43Distance39
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Diniz
Hines
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Diniz
Hines
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/11 fights
Chin rating based on
1/8 fights
Diniz
Hines
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
0
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Diniz
Hines
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Diniz
Hines
Striking4.5 / 0.0Volume6.5 / 0.0Grappling1.6 / 0.0Wrestling1.1 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.1 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Diniz
Strike Zones
Hines
Diniz
Attacking
38HEAD1BODY4LEGS43 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD11BODY3LEGS40 absorbed
Hines
Attacking
26HEAD11BODY3LEGS40 landed
Absorbing
38HEAD1BODY4LEGS43 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Diniz targets the head (88% of attacks) — Hines absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Hines targets the head (65% of attacks) — Diniz absorbs 65% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Diniz
RND
Hines
0/0R00/0

Diniz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.2W5.0W5.1L4.5W4.7L2024-042024-082024-112025-062025-10
WinLossTrend

Diniz · Last 5

Upcoming
Jose Montanha
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Mario PintoRating 4.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Alvin HinesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · R2
Marcin TyburaRating 5.1
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08

Hines · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
Jhonata DinizRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06

News & Media

Jhonata Diniz · Alvin Hines
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